A COMBINATION OF MONITORING AND FORECASTING TO PROVE THE CONTRIBUTION
OF CONTROL PROGRAM TO THE CHILDREN SURVIVAL
Tong Fang, Capital Institute of Pediatrics, Beijing,
China
Objective: To
analyze and forecast the infant mortality rate (IMR) and under-5-year
mortality rate (U5MR) with data from control program in the economically middle
rural areas.
Methods: Time
infer formula r= t√pt/po
1 pt = po(1+r)t or y = bax index model were
used.
Results: IMR
and infant pneumonia mortality rate were respectively 40.1 and 9.6 in 1990, and 16.6 and 2.7 in 1994. The r, reduce rate is 19.3% and 28.9%.
The aim of 2000 are 13.4
and 3.2; The
U5MR and U5PMR were respectively 49.4
and 11.2 in
1990, and 21.6 and 3.2 in 1994. The r is 18.0% and 28.5%. The aim of
2000 are 16.5 and 3.7. The two indexes of
pneumonia had reached the aim till 1994. But IMR and U5MR still need 0.9
and 1.3 years according the formula, which will reach 4.4 and 6.2 in 2000 (The two indexes
were 4 and 6 in Japan in 1990s).
Conclusion: According
to the time infer formula, IMR and U5MR were reduced more by intervention
of the control program in the economically middle rural areas.
Key words Monitoring
and calculating, Control program, Childrens mortality